Early polling indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a lead over former President Donald Trump among Latino voters. However, she has not yet reached the level of support that Democrats typically need to secure a White House victory.
An Axios review of exit polls over the past 50 years reveals that Democratic presidential candidates generally need to capture around 64% of the Latino vote to win the presidency. Currently, Harris’ support among Latinos is in the mid- to upper 50s. While this represents a significant improvement from President Joe Biden’s numbers earlier this year, it shows that Democrats still have work to do to meet their historical benchmark.
Here is what you need to know
Latino voters, who now make up nearly 20% of the U.S. population, are a vital part of the Democratic coalition. However, recent trends have seen this group shift towards the Republican Party, partly due to former President Trump’s appeal on economic policies, opposition to abortion, and stricter immigration measures. Despite this, Trump’s controversial rhetoric on immigration and his plan for mass deportations have also alienated many Latino voters.
In response, Harris has actively sought to bolster her appeal among Latino voters, particularly in key battleground states. Her campaign recently released an ad highlighting her family’s immigrant background and has included stops in the Southwest, including a significant rally in the Phoenix area.
Harris has received the endorsement of League of United Latin American Citizens
Additionally, Harris’ campaign received a notable boost with an endorsement from the political arm of the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC). This endorsement is particularly significant as LULAC, a historically nonpartisan organization, had never previously endorsed a presidential candidate in its nearly 100-year history.
Despite these efforts, Harris needs to increase her support among Latino voters to reach the critical 64% threshold that has historically been essential for Democrats to win the presidency.
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