Tehran: Iran’s theocratic government is facing increasing challenges to its decades-long strategy of building an “Axis of Resistance” by supporting militant groups and proxies across the Middle East. The situation has worsened due to multiple factors, including the recent Israeli military campaign in Gaza, which was triggered by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, an attack that was backed by Iran.
The war has led to another conflict in Lebanon, where Israel has dealt huge blows to Hezbollah, Iran’s most influential ally in the region. At the same time, Israel has conducted successful airstrikes within Iran itself, marking the first time it has openly carried out such operations on Iranian soil.
Now, Iran’s longtime ally and client in Syria, President Bashar Assad, has been ousted. As Sunday morning arrived, rebel forces launched a swift offensive, capturing the ancient capital of Damascus and dismantling symbols that represented over 50 years of Assad’s rule over the strategic crossroads of the Middle East.
The Fall of Assad: A Blow to Iran’s Regional Influence
Ali Akbar Velayati, a key adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, once called Assad and Syria “the golden ring of the resistance chain in the region.” “Without the Syrian government, this chain will break and the resistance against Israel and its supporters will be weakened.” That break in the chain is literal. Syria was an important geographical link that allowed Iran to move weapons and other supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Its loss now further weakens Hezbollah, whose powerful arsenal in southern Lebanon had put Iranian influence directly on the border of its nemesis Israel.
“Iran’s deterrence thinking is really shattered by events in Gaza, by events in Lebanon and definitely by developments in Syria,” a United Arab Emirates senior diplomat Anwar Gargash said at the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Manama Dialogue in Bahrain.
Iran still holds the card of its nuclear programme. Though it denies that intention, it can use the potential for building a weapons capability to cast a shadow of influence in the region.
Iran’s Strategic Support for Assad: The Role of Hezbollah and Russia
Hezbollah in Lebanon stood up against Israel. Assad appeared to have weathered an Arab Spring uprising-turned-civil war. Iraqi insurgents killed US troops with Iranian-designed roadside bombs. Yemen’s Houthi rebels fought a Saudi-led coalition to a stalemate.
Syria, at the crossroads, played a vital role.
Early in Syria’s civil war, when it appeared Assad might be overthrown, Iran and its ally, Hezbollah, rushed fighters to support him — in the name of defending Shiite shrines in Syria. Russia later joined with a scorched earth campaign of airstrikes.
The campaign won back territory, even as Syria remained divided into zones of government and insurgent control.
The Sudden Collapse of Assad: A Sign of Iran and Russia’s Weakened Support
But the speed of Assad’s collapse the past week showed just how reliant he was on support from Iran and Russia – which at the crucial moment didn’t come.
Russia remains mired years after launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. For Iran, international sanctions over its advancing nuclear programme have ground down its economy.
For Israel, breaking Iran’s regional network has been a major goal, though it is wary over jihadi fighters among the insurgents who toppled Assad. Israel on Sunday moved troops into a demilitarised buffer zone with Syria by the Israel-held Golan Heights in what it called a temporary security measure.
Netanyahu’s Victory and Iran’s Domestic Repercussions
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Assad’s fall a “historic day,” saying it was “the direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main supporters.” Iran’s theocratic rulers long touted their regional network to Iranians as a show of their country’s strength, and its crumbling could raise repercussions at home — though there is no immediate sign of their hold weakening. Anger over the tens of billions of dollars Iran is believed to have spent propping up Assad was a rallying cry in rounds of nationwide anti-government protests that have broken out over recent years, most recently in 2022.
Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions and Regional Instability
Iran could respond by revving up its nuclear programme The loss of Syria does not mean the end of Iran’s ability to project power in the Mideast. The Houthi rebels continue to launch attacks on Israel and on ships moving through the Red Sea — though the tempo of their attacks have again fallen without a clear explanation from their leadership.
Iran also maintains its nuclear programme. While insisting it enriches uranium for peaceful purposes, Western intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency say Iran had an organised nuclear weapons programme until 2003.
The head of the IAEA also warned Friday that Iran is poised to “quite dramatically” increase its stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium as it has started cascades of advanced centrifuges.
“If Iran would develop nuclear weapons, that would be a great blow to the international nonproliferation regime,” said Thanos Dokos. Greece’s national security adviser, in Bahrain.
There remains a risk of wider attacks in the region, particularly on oil infrastructure. An attack in 2019 initially claimed by the Houthis but later assessed by experts to have been carried out by Iran temporarily halved Saudi Arabia’s production of oil.
The Global Stakes: Iran’s Dilemma Between Domestic Challenges and Regional Instability
“If, as a result of escalation, there are attacks against the energy infrastructure of Iran or Saudi Arabia, that would be bad news for the global oil supply,” Dokos warned.
Whatever happens next, Iran will need to make the decision weighing the problems it faces at both home and abroad.
“Whereas stability is a difficult commodity to export, instability can travel very fast, which is why stability in the Middle East is very important for all of us,” Dokos said.
(with agency inputs)
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