Mumbai: China’s population is expected to halve by the end of the century, a significant drop from its current size. This dramatic decline marks the first time in six decades that China’s population has decreased, with more deaths than births. China’s rapid population growth, combined with strict birth control policies, has largely contributed to this unprecedented shrinkage.
Under Mao Zedong’s leadership in the 1950s, China experienced severe famine and poverty, resulting in a sharp decline in birth rates and a surge in mortality. However, post-famine, the population rebounded dramatically, worrying policymakers. In response, the Chinese government introduced the “later, longer, fewer” policy, which encouraged later marriages, longer birth intervals, and fewer children.
When this strategy failed to meet government expectations, China adopted the infamous One Child Policy, implementing mass sterilisation, iodine insertions, and induced abortion campaigns. These drastic measures were effective, perhaps too effective, leading to a long-term population decline. Between 1979 and 2015, China’s birth rates plummeted, and its replacement rate fell to an unsustainable 1.18%, well below the required 2.1% for population stability.
Economic Implications of a Shrinking Workforce
China’s large population has long been central to its economic success. A readily available labour force propelled China’s manufacturing sector, which accounts for around 40% of its total GDP. However, as China’s population continues to shrink, the labour force declines, posing a serious threat to China’s manufacturing output and its overall economy.
Despite eliminating the One Child Policy in 2016 and briefly experimenting with a three-child policy, birth rates have continued to fall. Many families, especially those following the four-two-one family structure (four grandparents, two parents, and one child), find it difficult to expand their family size due to high living costs and limited childcare options.
Challenges Facing Families and Government Initiatives
Recent surveys suggest that more than 50% of adults in China do not plan to have more than one child, citing financial pressures and the rising cost of living as the primary reasons. In response, the government has introduced several measures, including extended maternity leaves and cash incentives to encourage larger families. Despite these initiatives, they have had little impact on boosting the birth rate.
The Population Pyramid Problem
China’s shrinking population also reveals a growing imbalance between its younger and older populations. The country’s population pyramid has become increasingly top-heavy, with fewer young people to support an ageing population. This imbalance poses long-term risks to China’s economy and political stability. In contrast, countries like Kenya, which have rapidly growing populations, boast a more youthful demographic structure, offering a stark comparison.
Global Economic and Political Ramifications
As China’s workforce shrinks, the country risks losing its status as a global economic superpower. In the 1980s, China’s rapid modernisation attracted foreign investment, turning the nation into a hub for cheap manufacturing. Today, however, China faces significant hurdles in maintaining its global influence. With China’s GDP per capita still below many advanced nations, there are concerns that an ageing population will further slow economic growth, forcing China to rethink its global ambitions.
Moreover, China is not alone in facing population challenges. Other Asian and European nations are also grappling with declining birth rates, but China’s population decline is happening at a much faster rate. The consequences for China’s role in the global economy are profound, and the nation will need to implement far-reaching reforms to counterbalance the effects of its population shrinkage.
China’s population decline is set to reshape the global economic landscape. With its labour force shrinking, China faces serious economic challenges that threaten its role as a global superpower. Explore the causes, policies, and future implications of this drastic demographic shift. Economy Business News – Personal Finance News, Share Market News, BSE/NSE News, Stock Exchange News Today
