New Delhi: The exit polls and their impact have been seen in the stock market. Both Sensex and Nifty have seen record gains. After February 1, 2021, the stock market has seen the highest single-day gain. Companies from Reliance Industries to Adani Group have seen tremendous growth. In such a situation, the biggest question now is how will the stock market be on the day of the election results? To find the answer to this question, we will have to go back 20 years. Yes, in the year 2004, the election results were seen overturning all the figures and estimates of the exit polls and a slight rise was seen in the stock market because the stock market closed with a big decline the next day after the exit polls.
On the other hand, no one would have seen such a long jump as the Sensex made during the 2009 elections. That day, the stock market saw a jump of more than 17 percent. In 2014, the market closed with a decline of more than one percent and in 2019, the market closed with a slight decline. Let us go on this journey and try to understand in the language of statistics how the stock market has moved on the day of the Lok Sabha elections held and the results announced in the last 20 years. And how can the stock market move on the day of the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
When Narendra Modi’s era began
The year 2014 marked the beginning of the Modi era politically and economically. The election results were announced on 16 May. Before that, on 15 May, the Sensex was at 23905.60 points. On 16 May, the Sensex closed at 24171.74 points. On this day, the Sensex saw a rise of 1.11 percent i.e. 266.14 points.
On the other hand, Nifty closed with more than 7200 points. If we look at the figures, on May 15, Nifty was seen at 7,123.15 points and on May 16, it closed at 7,203.00 points. This means that on the day of election results, Nifty saw a rise of 1.12 percent i.e. 79.85 points.
When Modi won power for the second time
In the year 2019, Modi government won for the second consecutive time and with more strength. The results were announced on 23 May. On 22 May, the Sensex closed at 39110.21 points. On 23 May, in view of the election results, the Sensex had crossed 40 thousand points during the trading session. But after that profit booking started. After the market closed, the Sensex was seen at 38811.39 points with a decline of 0.76 percent or 298.82 points.
The condition of Nifty was also seen to be similar. On May 22, Nifty closed at 11,737.90 points. On May 23, during the election results, Nifty crossed the 12 thousand points level. After that, profit booking was seen in the market and a decline of 0.69 percent i.e. 80.85 points was seen and it closed at 11,657.05 points.
How can the market react on June 4?
Now the biggest question is how the stock market can react on June 4? According to stock market expert Puneet Kinra, if the election results remain the same as the exit polls, then the stock market can once again see a rise of up to 5 percent. After that the stock market will definitely come down and settle at the right number. On the other hand, if the results lead to a hung parliament, the possibility of which seems almost nil, then a lower circuit of up to 10 percent can be seen in the stock market.
With the Lok Sabha elections 2024 results set to be announced on Tuesday, June 4, lets take a look at how Sensex and Nifty performed on results day in 2014 and 2019. Sensex and Nifty hit 3-year highs on Monday, gained nearly 4 per cent during the day’s trade. Markets Business News – Personal Finance News, Share Market News, BSE/NSE News, Stock Exchange News Today
