New Delhi: When the pressure of relegation looms large Premier League clubs often resort to one drastic solution of sacking the manager. But does this gamble really work? On Sunday two clubs decided to roll the dice and change their fate.
Southampton who are at rock bottom of the table and are nine points adrift of safety, parted ways with manager Russell Martin- the man who had guided them back to the Premier League promotion last season. Meanwhile, Wolves are sitting five points from safety, ending Gary O’Neil’s tenure after a season and a half in charge.
The decision to change managers mid-season is not new but the effectiveness of this move remains up for debate. While some clubs experience a revival under new leadership others spiral further into chaos. With time running out Southampton and Wolves are betting on fresh ideas to avoid the relegation but will it pay off or is it a desperate roll of the dice?
Is there any hope for Wolves?
Excluding this season, there have been 91 instances where a team in the relegation zone parted ways with their manager, and in 36 of those cases, they managed to avoid the drop. The success rate of the same is 40% so we know that the difficult season can work well. Of those 36 successful cases, five teams were exactly five points adrift when the manager got sacked just like the Wolves.
Sam Allardyce managed and saved two of those five teams- Blackburn in 2008-09 and Sunderland in 2015-16. Tony Parkes as a caretaker manager guided Blackburn to safety in 1996-97 while Harry Redknapp helped Tottenham avoid relegation in 2008-09.
Tony Pulis also pulled off a great escape with Crystal Palace in 2013-14 though by the time he replaced caretaker Keith Millen they were only three points from safety. One of those five instances came this late in a season when Blackburn sacked Paul Ince on 16 December 2008 and hired Allardyce two days later.
The other four changes happened in October with all teams five points adrift. One good omen for Wolves is that they were the second most recent team that changed manager while in the bottom three and stayed up. That was the time when Julen Lopetegui replaced Bruno Lage just before the 2022 World Cup.
Is there any hope for Southampton?
No team in the Premier League have ever changed their manager when nine points adrift ( in fact anything more than five points) and stayed up. In fact, only two teams Blackburn in 1996-97 and West Ham in 2006-07 have stayed up after being nine points or more from relegation at any stage of the season.
The Hammers have replaced Alan Pardew with Alan Curbishley earlier that season and were 10 points adrift with nine games remaining and they managed to win seven of those to stay in the race. Changing the manager while in the drop zone, Southampton have managed to survive thrice when Ian Branfoot left in 1993-94, Start Gray exited in 2001-02 and Mark Hughes left in 2018-19.
But the tactic has failed for them as well twice when first Ralph Hasenhuttl in 2022-23 November, and then Nathan Jones left in February. But in none of these instances, they were in a great mess. The Saints will remain at the bottom of the table at Christmas with only four previous teams- West Bromwich Albion in 2004-05, Sunderland in 2013-14, Leicester City and Wolves in 2022-23 have survived from that position in Premier League history.
How often have recent managerial changes worked?
Over the last five seasons, 26 teams have sacked their managers while in the relegation zone, but only five managed to avoid the drop.
Last season, Burnley, Luton, and Sheffield United occupied the bottom three spots. While Sheffield United changed their manager, the other two did not and all three were relegated.
In 2022-23, however, Bournemouth, Everton, and Wolves all sacked their managers and successfully climbed out of the relegation zone.
Now, Wolves and Southampton find themselves in a similar position, desperately hoping that a managerial shake-up will help them survive and climb the standings.
Can managerial changes help Wolves and Southampton escape relegation and change the history of mid-season managerial shake-ups. Football Sports News: Latest Cricket News, Cricket Live Score, Sports Breaking News from Sports Today
