President-elect Donald Trump garnered an unprecedented share of the Latino vote in the recent election, with 46% of Latino voters casting their ballots for him, according to a new exit poll by Edison Research. This result not only breaks past Republican records but also surpasses previous highs set by George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan, marking a significant shift in Latino voter preferences in modern elections.
Trump’s historic support among Latino voters, particularly men, contributed to Vice President Kamala Harris ‘s lowest showing among Latino voters for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years. The Edison Research exit poll reveals that Trump’s appeal among Latinos helped him overcome traditional party divides, as he delivered targeted messaging on economic issues and inflation — the top concerns for many voters this year.
Political experts say Trump’s messaging appealed to Latinos despite past inflammatory language he has used regarding undocumented immigrants. “Latinos were saying, ‘I don’t care what Trump says. I want to be able to pay the bills. I want to be able to send my kid to college. I want to pay the mortgage, to afford a new car,'” University of Houston professor Jeronimo Cortina said to Axios.
A look at the numbers
Trump’s strong showing was driven primarily by Latino men, 55% of whom voted for him, compared to 38% of Latina women. In total, Trump’s 46% support among Latinos outpaced the previous high mark of 44%, set by George W. Bush in 2004. In comparison, Ronald Reagan received 37% of the Latino vote in 1980 and 34% in 1984.
Meanwhile, Harris won 52% of the Latino vote — a tie for the lowest performance by a Democrat in two decades. This figure is notably lower than the 64% share that Democrats have typically relied on from Latino voters to secure the presidency over the last 50 years.
The swing state factor
Trump’s gains among Latino voters were especially pronounced in key swing states that proved decisive in the election. In Michigan, Trump achieved an impressive 58% of the Latino vote, while Harris garnered just 39%. Meanwhile, in states like North Carolina and Nevada, the two candidates were neck-and-neck among Latino voters. Trump also made strides in traditionally Democratic-leaning Latino regions.
In South Texas, Trump flipped key counties where Democrats have historically held sway. He narrowly defeated Harris 51% to 49% in Hidalgo County, a predominantly Mexican American area that President Biden won with 58% in 2020. In Cameron County, near the Rio Grande Valley, Trump led 53% to 47%, again taking over ground that Biden had previously held by a considerable margin.
An evolving party identity
Political analysts suggest that Trump’s economic and immigration messages resonated particularly well in South Texas, where many Latino voters have conservative values. According to the Axios report, Andrew Smith, a political science professor at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, said, “I think what you’re seeing nationally is something that’s been going on in South Texas for years — this idea that the Democratic Party does not align with their values.” He noted that values like a strong work ethic may conflict with Democratic policies that emphasize an expanded social safety net.
UTRGV professor Álvaro J. Corral, who grew up in South Texas, said he was surprised by “the magnitude of the shift” among Latino voters, explaining that structural challenges and economic concerns were “too much to overcome for Democrats.” Corral added that many working-class Latinos in South Texas continue to feel the effects of inflation, despite its recent decline, which remains a pressing concern.
Looking ahead
Trump’s record-setting Latino vote share underscores a shift in Latino voter dynamics that may shape future elections. As both parties continue to engage with Latino communities, Trump’s success in appealing to their economic concerns presents a blueprint that could redefine Republican outreach to this crucial voting bloc in years to come.
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