New Delhi: The FA Cup draw has always been a source of heated debates among football fans. Accusations of “favouritism” often dominate conversations, especially when some clubs seem to get easier fixtures year after year. But does the data back up these claims? Looking at the FA Cup draws for the Premier League’s “big six” over the past decade: Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham reveals intriguing insights.
From Chelsea’s abundance of home draws to Liverpool’s challenging away fixtures, the numbers show how luck in the draw can shape each team’s journey.
Chelsea: Kings of the home draw
Chelsea have undoubtedly been the luckiest in terms of home draws. Since the 2014-15 season, they have played 69% of their FA Cup ties at Stamford Bridge. This means that out of their 35 matches in the competition, 24 were on home turf.
In fact, Chelsea have only faced a Premier League side away from home four times in the last decade. Even more remarkably, their only away tie against a fellow big six club came in the 2022-23 season when they lost to Manchester City under Graham Potter.
This home dominance has often eased their route to later stages. For instance, during their 2021-22 campaign, they faced lower-league sides like Chesterfield and Plymouth, followed by Luton and Middlesbrough.
Liverpool: The toughest away draws
If Chelsea have been lucky, Liverpool have been the opposite. In the last ten years, 30% of Liverpool’s FA Cup matches were away to Premier League sides. This includes eight such games, with four of those coming against fellow big six opponents.
Liverpool’s record highlights how difficult their draws have been. Compare that to Chelsea, who have faced only four Premier League sides away from home in the same period, or Tottenham, who have yet to face a big six side away in the past decade.
Despite these challenges, Liverpool’s toughest run came in the 2019-20 season. They were drawn away to Shrewsbury Town and lost in a replay. Even when they progressed, tough draws followed, showing how luck often eludes them.
Manchester United: Prone to away draws
Manchester United are often accused of being favoured by the draw, particularly due to a streak of nine home games between 2020-21 and 2022-23. However, their overall record tells a different story. Over the past decade, they’ve had 19 away games compared to 18 at Old Trafford, giving them a balanced home-away ratio of 51%-49%.
Interestingly, before their home-game streak, United had seven consecutive away ties. This pattern suggests short-term runs can influence fan perceptions more than the bigger picture.
Manchester City: Consistent tough opponents
Manchester City have had their fair share of tough fixtures, especially in recent years. They’ve been drawn away to Premier League sides 11 times in their 37 FA Cup games since 2014-15. Like Liverpool, this gives them a 30% rate of tough away draws.
Their 2023-24 campaign showcased one of the toughest paths to the final. City defeated Huddersfield, Tottenham, Luton, Newcastle, and Chelsea before beating Manchester United in the final. On average, their opponents were ranked 15th—one of the most challenging runs recorded.
Who got the easiest and hardest routes in the Emirates FA Cup?
While individual draws matter, the overall path to the FA Cup trophy often highlights disparities in luck.
- Easiest Run: Chelsea in 2021-22 faced opponents with an average league position of 36th. This included Chesterfield, Plymouth, and Crystal Palace.
- Hardest Run: Arsenal’s 2019-20 campaign remains the toughest. They faced Leeds, Bournemouth, Portsmouth, Sheffield United, Manchester City, and Chelsea.
What do the numbers say about the “Big Six”?
When looking at a decade of FA Cup data, clear patterns emerge. Chelsea enjoy the most favourable draws, playing most often at home and rarely against tough opposition. Liverpool, by contrast, regularly face uphill battles, with a high number of challenging away fixtures.
Manchester United and Manchester City fall somewhere in between, often getting balanced draws with occasional tough campaigns. Meanwhile, Tottenham, despite avoiding big six clubs in away ties, have not enjoyed much FA Cup success, highlighting that luck in the draw is only part of the equation.
The FA Cup’s magic lies in its unpredictability. Luck may influence a team’s journey, but grit and determination are what truly decide the winners. Whether a club starts at home against a non-league side or faces a Premier League giant away, the competition never fails to deliver drama.
The FA Cup draws spark debates about fairness. Are Premier League’s ‘big six’ really favoured? Analysing 10 years of data reveals intriguing patterns of home ties, tough opponents, and luck. Football Sports News: Latest Cricket News, Cricket Live Score, Sports Breaking News from Sports Today
