New Delhi: With the exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha poll results likely to come out later on Saturday, it is a good time to look at how the markets are likely to respond to trends on June 3, 2024, one day before the actual vote counting begins and results are declared by the Election Commission of India. This understanding of the market being a gauge of the national mood has been gathered from the experience of the last 2 Lok Sabha polls.
How markets reacted to exit poll 2014
The exit polls of 2014 indicated a win for the BJP-led NDA government, with a seat share of 272-340. The exit polls also showed the UPA as faring poorly, unable to muster more than 100-150 seats. The markets did not show much movement the next day on May 13, 2014, since the exit poll surveys had been priced in. The Sensex on May 13, 2014, jumped by 1.36 per cent, or 320.23 points after closing at 23,551 points on May 12, 2014. The Nifty was up 1.25 per cent of 94.5 points to 7,108.75 points on May 13.
How markets reacted to exit poll predictions 2019
The 2019 exit poll predictions on May 17, 2019, after the conclusion of the last phase of Lok Sabha polls, showed that the BJP will secure over 300 seats and the NDA will cross the 350 mark. The UPA’s seat tally was seen below 2014 levels in the 2019 exit polls. On May 20, the stock market roared to a 4.75 per cent start. The Sensex soared 3.75 per cent to 39,352.67 and the Nifty surged 3.69 per cent to 11,828.25, according to an analysis by TV9.
All eyes on June 3
Why June 3, you ask? Because Monday, June 3, the stock market will re-open after the weekend for the first day on June 3, 2024, and investors will have digested the exit poll survey revealed over the weekend. While the jury is still out on the exit polls since the last phase of voting is still underway, markets may go either way on Monday.
Several brokerages have forecast mutliple scenarios for market response based on how may seats are garnered by each alliance. With the BJP-led NDA fighting for a third straight term after 10 years of rule at the Centre, brokerages have forecast in some scenarios that the majority mark may not be as clear as projected by the party.
However, in the scenario where the BJP-led NDA returns with a resounding majority of 400 seats, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is forecast to return as Prime Minister and the markets are expected to surge to new highs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself said that market players will get tired of counting transactions on June 4, 20204 once the official poll result is out, in which he predicted a majority for the alliance led by his party.
The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty indices are likely to show their mark of approval of cast a shadow of disappointment based on the 2024 Lok Sabha poll result forecast made by different exit polls. All eyes will be on market response to the exit poll forecasts on June 3, 2024. Markets Business News – Personal Finance News, Share Market News, BSE/NSE News, Stock Exchange News Today
