New Delhi: Allan Lichtman, the political historian often dubbed the “Nostradamus” of US elections for his accurate predictions, has blamed the “explosion” of disinformation and billionaire Elon Musk for his incorrect forecast that Kamala Harris would win the 2024 election. Lichtman, a professor at American University, had confidently predicted Harris’s victory, but with Donald Trump’s triumph, he acknowledged that his method might need to be reassessed.
Speaking to NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo, Lichtman attributed the failure of his prediction to the unprecedented spread of disinformation, which he claims heavily influenced public opinion during this election. “Disinformation has exploded to an unprecedented degree,” Lichtman said. “We’ve seen something brand new this time – billionaire Elon Musk putting his thumb on the scales.”
Lichtman further explained how Musk’s influence, particularly through the platform X (formerly Twitter), contributed to the dissemination of misinformation. “It’s been reported that his misinformation had had billions, literally billions of views and this has spread to every aspect of this election,” Lichtman added. He pointed to issues such as immigration, the economy, reproductive rights, and foreign policy as areas where misinformation played a critical role.
The political scientist, who developed the “Keys to the White House” method with Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, uses 13 true-false statements to predict election outcomes. The system analyzes factors like the state of the economy, domestic unrest, and the standing of the incumbent president’s party in Congress. Historically, if six or more of these factors are false, the challenger is predicted to win. While Lichtman defended his method, he admitted that the rise of disinformation may require a reevaluation.
“The premise of the keys is that a rational, pragmatic electorate decides whether the White House party has governed well enough to get four more years,” he said. “But if the views of the White House party are controlled by disinformation, particularly driven by those who are so rich that they have extraordinary influence beyond anyone else, then maybe the premise of the keys needs to be changed.”
In addition to the backlash over his inaccurate prediction, Lichtman and his family have reportedly faced serious threats, including doxxing, swatting, and intimidation. “We’ve faced death threats, doxxing, swatting and intimidation at our doorstep,” he shared on X. “We will not be bullied. Federal law enforcement is now alerted.”
Despite his prediction faltering, Lichtman, often called the “Nostradamus” of US politics, he remains committed to scrutinizing the evolving influence of money and media in US elections.
Nostradamus of US Elections Blames Elon Musk and ‘Explosion’ of Disinformation for Wrong Prediction world-news World News | Latest International News | Global World News | World Breaking Headlines Today
