Robert F. Kennedy Jr., once seen as a major wildcard in the 2024 presidential race, is now grappling with significant obstacles as his campaign falters.
Kennedy, who had a unique opportunity when the Democratic Party was in turmoil over President Biden’s candidacy, is now facing declining poll numbers, dwindling funds, and a reduced campaign schedule.
A look at the numbers
Kennedy’s support has sharply decreased, according to recent polls. Earlier this year, he was polling as high as 15%, but current figures show his support in the single digits. A New York Times/Siena College poll indicates that only 6% of registered voters would back Kennedy in a six-way race. Similarly, a Quinnipiac University poll shows 8% support, while a Wall Street Journal poll puts him at just 4%.
“By any metric, the campaign is certainly down momentum-wise than where it was at the beginning of the year,” said Christopher Thrasher to Axios, a ballot access attorney and political consultant. Thrasher, who has worked with various independent and third-party campaigns, noted that Kennedy’s campaign is struggling to maintain its earlier momentum.
Kamala’s entry has had a negative impact on Kennedy’s campaign
One key factor in Kennedy’s difficulties is the shifting political landscape. With Vice President Kamala Harris now in the race, Kennedy’s base of “double haters” — voters dissatisfied with both major candidates — seems to be dwindling. Harris, who appeals to younger voters, has also attracted a demographic that had previously shown interest in Kennedy.
Kennedy’s campaign has been marked by several missteps. After Biden’s withdrawal from the race, Kennedy continued to focus his attacks on the former president instead of pivoting to challenge Harris, who quickly became the central figure in the Democratic race. This slow adaptation has added to the campaign’s woes.
Kennedy campaign is also facing financial strain
The campaign has also faced financial strain, burning through more than $6.2 million in June while raising only $5.4 million. The costs associated with securing ballot access nationwide have compounded these financial difficulties. Kennedy’s campaign has acknowledged this challenge, describing the ballot access process as a “marathon before you get to the starting line.”
Will Kennedy abandon his campaign?
Despite these issues, Kennedy’s campaign reported this week that he has gathered enough signatures to secure ballot access in 42 states. However, the ongoing struggles have led to speculation about whether he might eventually abandon his bid.
In addition to these challenges, a leaked phone call between Kennedy and former President Trump, in which Trump expressed a desire for Kennedy to “do something” with his campaign, added to the controversy. Kennedy apologized for the leak and reaffirmed his commitment to the race, but the incident has further complicated his campaign’s narrative.
As Kennedy’s campaign navigates these difficulties, his future in the 2024 race remains uncertain.
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