Washington: With less than 48 hours until the US election and over 77.6 million votes already cast, several surveys so far has indicated that Democrat Presidential candidate Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former US president and Republican candidate Donald Trump .
However, there are many other surveys which suggest that Donald Trump is leading in the majority of the swing states pointing towards a tight race. There is almost no difference in their polling numbers, leading analysts to hesitate in making any bold predictions.
Elections Too Close To Call
Most polls indicate a virtual deadlock, suggesting that the election is likely to be historically close, both nationally and in the seven swing states where the outcome is expected to be determined.
However, a surprising boost for Kamala Harris came from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll on November 2, which showed her leading Trump. This shift is attributed to likely female voters in a state that Trump won easily in both 2016 and 2020.
Harris Gains Lead In Iowa As Per Surveys
In those previous elections, Trump secured Iowa by more than 9 percentage points in 2016 and 8 points in 2020. The recent poll, conducted with 808 likely voters between October 28 and 31, shows Harris ahead of Trump by 44% to 47% in Iowa, a state that has leaned heavily Republican in recent years.
Although this result falls within the 3.4 percentage point margin of error, it represents a notable shift from a September Iowa Poll, which had Trump leading by 4 points, according to a report by Reuters.
Conversely, the Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey, conducted with a similar number of likely voters between November 1 and 2, reported a different outcome, showing Trump ahead of Harris by 10 points. This poll also has a 3.4 percentage point margin of error. The Emerson survey indicated that Trump has strong support among men and independents, while Harris is performing well among voters under 30.
On November 3, a final New York Times/Siena poll highlighted minor changes in swing states, but all results remained within the margin of error, as reported by AFP.
Donald Trump Rejects Iowa Survey
“I’m not down in Iowa. My enemies want to pull me down. These are fake polls,” Trump asserted as US Election 2024 entered its last leg.
Whoever wins Iowa will collect six Electoral College votes. A total of 270 are needed to capture the White House. Both parties have been concentrating their efforts during the closing days of their campaigns on “battleground” states such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump Leading In Majority Swing States
In a significant boost for former President Donald Trump, a recent survey conducted just before the November 5 presidential elections reveals that he is ahead of his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, in all key swing states. The polls indicate that Trump is leading in all seven swing states, garnering approximately 49% support.
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