Bull markets create stupid investors, stupid investors create Bear markets. Bear markets create smart investors, smart investors create the Bull market. It’s a life circle – Vijay Kedia.
New Delhi: When you are in the ‘eye of the tiger’ (Survivors popular take on life and times), you wish to ‘don’t stop believin’ (by Journey)… why are we breaking into classical songs to describe an event on the uncharacteristic swings (may we add sways too) of the share market or the quintessential “bazaar”. It’s because the session on shares at the Money9 Financial Freedom Summit, demanded a sharp myth-bust and a wake-up-call and who better than ace investor Vivek Kedia to do discourse?
In true blue Kedia style, the maverick stock market investor started with two of his popular analogies. The first equating a divine ‘slap’ to the loss that one witnesses at the ‘bazaar’ due to one’s over confidence in the market analysis, and the other equating bottom buying and top selling to be a faulty approach in the market business.
“When God gives, there is no limit to His offerings, but when He takes, you end up getting a slap! And when the divine slaps you, He doesn’t tell you it’s the last one,” Kedia explains in all simplicity. It may appear to be humorous at the surface but deep as you dig in.
Kedia’s comments coupled with Sumit Mehrotra’s (Consulting Editor for Money9) light hearted quips highlighted the unpredictable nature of the markets. The duo claimed that investors often look for certainty, but no one truly knows whether the market is at its peak or bottom. Through another interesting analogy saying that the top of the market is only known to the Gods and the Bottom to the liar, Kedia goes on to dismiss the very idea of “timing the market perfectly”. He even called it a myth. “I am neither God, nor am I a liar. But what I can tell you is that no one knows the inside-out of the markets. You must invest when you are ready to take a risk, and be prepared that the shares will fall further. If you wait to buy only when the shares are at the bottom, that time would have passed,” Kedia informs.
Instead, the prudent manner to go about investing in a share market is to buy when they are mentally prepared to see further dips and to sell when they are ready to accept that prices may still go higher after their exit.
It’s a risk after all.
Winning and losing is part of the gamble
Kedia is confident that the sluggish market is looking at an upside. Purely going by numerology, he predicts that there is a 9 month cycle that every market sees. “If the downward trend started in September, it will get better by June,” he exclaims much to the awe of a rapt audience in Mumbai.
He is also optimistic about the crisis teaching a thing or two to investors who were keen on investing and seeing profits soar in no time. “It doesn’t work that way. The markets being down should have happened earlier, in my opinion. Maybe towards the very beginning of 2024. The crisis has hit those who were riding the wave expecting short-term profits. They are ones whose expectations have been met with a ‘divine slap’. However, for those who had arrived at the market wanting to tide the wave long term, they are the ones who are going to see the fruits of their perseverance,” he tells us.
The rule for survival in the Indian share market landscape is a simple one — everyone has to go through losses to finally win in the bazaar. “What the bear market can teach investors, the bulls cannot. There’s a saying that I swear by — Bull markets create stupid investors, stupid investors create Bear markets. Bear markets create smart investors, smart investors create the Bull market. It’s a life circle,” says Kedia.
Are Indian markets still attractive?
The Mahakumbh time of share market is over, opines Kedia, adding that the Kumbh will come every year but the Mahakumbh period is all but over.
What’s the way forward then, asks Mehrotra… bhaag lena, ya bhaag jaana? (to participate or run away)
Pat came the reply — Running away option has ceased to exist. It’s the time only to participate!
The Money9 Financial Freedom Summit 2025, in its third leg, brought together market veterans and investors to decode the ever-evolving stock market landscape. One of the most anticipated sessions, ‘All About Shares & Songs’, featured ace investor Vijay Kedia in conversation with Sumit Mehrotra, Consulting Editor, Money9. What followed was a tête-à-tête replete of market insights, prudence, and of course’s Kedia’s signature quips! Markets Business News – Personal Finance News, Share Market News, BSE/NSE News, Stock Exchange News Today
