Turmoil at the Etihad: What’s going wrong for Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City?

Going back to the days under Stuart Pearce during the 2005/06 season, City endured nine defeats in ten games and finished a disappointing 15th. They’re already almost halfway there in the league. Back then, the club lacked the resources and prestige it enjoys today. Fast forward to 2024, and the club is in a different world financially and reputationally, yet finds itself battling familiar demons of inconsistency and underperformance.

Injuries and Squad Depth

Manchester City’s injury list 😱

(h/t @TheCityRamble) pic.twitter.com/JtdJRjf99P

— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) November 1, 2024

One of the most critical factors behind City’s slump is the injury crisis that has ravaged their squad. Rodri’s knee ligament rupture in late September has been particularly catastrophic. His influence on the team’s performance is stark: with him, City boasted a 75.6% win rate since February 2023, losing just once. Without him, that win rate plummeted to 57.1%, with 10 defeats in 28 matches. The defensive backbone has also been shattered, with all four of their main center-halves—Ruben Dias, John Stones, Nathan Ake, and Manuel Akanji—dealing with injuries at various points.

The domino effect of these absences has forced Guardiola into makeshift solutions, such as using Ilkay Gundogan, a 34-year-old attacking midfielder, as a defensive anchor, with little success. The man that the club hoped would be the one to take over the mantle from Rodri is busy trying to be a part of the relegation battle with Ipswich Town, but is failing to break into their lineup as well. Kalvin Phillips, once seen as the future of England, has now been rendered nothing more than the new Jack Rodwell.

Tactical Disarray and Missed Transfers

Guardiola’s tactical genius, usually his strength, has struggled to compensate for these injuries. His initial reluctance to spend heavily after winning four consecutive league titles was rooted in sustainability, a philosophy he strongly advocated. However, this decision backfired as the squad’s depth was tested to breaking point. The failure to find a capable understudy for Rodri has been glaring, with Kalvin Phillips, despite his high-profile transfer, proving an ill fit. The reliance on makeshift midfielders and defenders has left City vulnerable, conceding more goals by the 13th game of this season than in entire previous campaigns under Guardiola.

The sale of promising young talents like Cole Palmer, Romeo Lavia, and Liam Delap also now appears questionable. Palmer, in particular, has thrived at Chelsea, leading many to wonder if City erred by not retaining him as a future star. Guardiola’s decision-making, while rarely questioned at the time, now faces scrutiny as the squad’s deficiencies become more apparent. Add to that the departure of Julian Alvarez, who not only proved to be an able back up Erling Haaland, but also provided an alternate style to the Norwegian is being sorely missed with the 24-year-old going through a rough patch off late, despite having started the season on fire.

Hitting New Lows with a Training Ground Loss

Perhaps the most symbolic moment of City’s current malaise came in a recent training session. A nine-versus-nine match involving the senior squad and the Elite Development Squad (EDS) saw the teenagers outshine the first team. While it’s true that some senior players were fatigued from their grueling schedule—including a demoralizing 3-3 draw with Feyenoord after leading 3-0—this scenario still paints a bleak picture. Seeing a group of multi-millionaire, seasoned professionals being outplayed by academy youngsters is not just a training hiccup; it signals a deeper issue of morale, intensity, and focus.

This loss of competitive edge extends to match days, where players have appeared unusually relaxed, even complacent. During their recent 2-0 defeat at Liverpool, some City players were seen joking and chatting with their opponents while trailing. Guardiola’s visible frustration and his forced smile in response to Anfield’s taunts of “sacked in the morning” suggest a manager under immense strain, grappling with both internal and external pressures.

According to @DTathletic, a selection of #ManCity first-team players LOST against a group of teenagers from the EDS in a nine-vs-nine exercise the day after the 3-3 draw against Feyenoord… pic.twitter.com/sP9dhE55Xh

— City Report (@cityreport_) December 3, 2024

Despite the setbacks, Guardiola remains integral to City’s plans. His new two-year contract, announced during their losing streak, demonstrates the club’s faith in him to steer them through this crisis. However, Guardiola himself is not immune to self-doubt. He reportedly shut himself away after consecutive defeats, reflecting on his inability to inspire the team as he normally does. His anxiety has been visible, with his tense demeanor during games and over-dramatic team talks, notably after the 4-0 loss to Spurs, unsettling the squad rather than rallying them.

Guardiola’s challenge is to maintain calm and composure, as his players take their emotional cues from him. His self-admonition to “be calm” is an acknowledgment of this responsibility. Yet, as the results worsen, it becomes increasingly difficult for even a manager of his stature to project confidence. Even the greats go through a difficult period, with Sir Alex Ferguson and Johan Cryuff all having gone through a rough patch in their historic careers, that would be silver lining Pep would be searching for in this grey cloud.

Long-Term Considerations: A Necessary Rebuild

City’s leadership is already contemplating a significant rebuild. Initially planned for 2025, there is growing recognition that it may need to happen sooner. Players like Kyle Walker, Kevin De Bruyne, and Ederson, who have been central to City’s dominance, may be phased out. The club’s loyalty to these veterans is now viewed as potentially detrimental, with the need for “head-over-heart” decisions becoming more pressing.

Guardiola’s insistence on running the club sustainably contributed to delaying this rebuild, but circumstances have forced a rethink. Injuries and loss of form among senior players have exposed the squad’s age and lack of dynamism. This recognition within the boardroom indicates a willingness to take bold steps next summer, though it remains to be seen if this will come too late for the current season.

Compounding City’s on-pitch woes is the ongoing investigation into their alleged 115 breaches of Premier League financial regulations. While City remain confident of avoiding sporting sanctions, the distraction is unwelcome. The club’s dominance has always attracted scrutiny, but this season, with their vulnerability laid bare, rivals and critics are watching more closely than ever. Guardiola’s position as a lure for prospective signings adds another layer of complexity; his continued presence is vital to their recruitment strategy, making his commitment to the club crucial despite the challenges.

Pep’s worst moment can become his defining moment

Manchester City’s current predicament is a culmination of injuries, tactical missteps, and delayed squad evolution. While their success under Guardiola has been remarkable, this season represents a defining moment. The club must navigate immediate pressures while planning for a future that may demand difficult decisions. Guardiola’s resolve, the players’ response, and the club’s strategic direction will determine whether City can weather this storm or face a prolonged period of rebuilding. For now, the world is watching, and City must rise to the challenge.